Welcome to a new year in ATL, the vibrant city we love and call home! Last year, Atlanta’s real estate market put us through the wringer. Whether you were a buyer trying to stomach almost 8% rates or a seller trying to adjust your home price expectations or an agent just trying to survive the shifts… it was interesting! I don’t know about you, but we’re excited to the turn the page to a new chapter and kick off the year with some fresh stats on where the current market stands and what experts are predicting.
From a dip in mortgage rates to an increase in projected sales, let’s see what the 2024 housing market might have to offer.
Before we dive too deep into 2024 housing market predictions, it’s important to note the impact of last year’s market. Overall real estate transactions for both buyers and sellers were down significantly compared to previous years.
This is due to the painful combination of high interest rates and inventory shortage. Some might consider last year a real estate “Bear Market” as you would the state of the economy. However, even with the lack of sales in 2023, homeowners did not lose equity in their homes. This is because of the increasing demand for inventory as buyers flood the market and homeowners refrain from listing homes.
So even with a dip in sales and peaking interest rates, the real estate market has stayed afloat—and will continue to do so as the market shifts over the next few years.
Mortgage rates, the topic you’ve all been waiting for. So, let’s cut right to the chase—yes, rates are expected to decrease this year. Because rates have a direct correlation to inflation rates, the FEDs have prolonged most cuts until inflation rates lower to 2% (more info). With inflation currently sitting around 3%, many experts believe mortgage rates will start a steady decline throughout the year.
The real estate experts at Buffini & Company & The National Association of Realtors (NAR) project rates to hit the mid 6’s during July and even high 5’s by the end of the year, a significant dip compared to the 8% peak in October of 2023. While these projected rates might not look like the 3’s and 4’s of a few years ago, it’s important to remember that the record-low rates of 2020 and 2021 were artificially stimulated in response to the world-wide pandemic. We will not be making a return to such low rates in the near future, so make sure to keep this in mind when setting your 2024 real estate goals.
Here is some historical perspective:
If you have been waiting to sell your home in fear of affording the latest interest rates, this is the year to make your move. With interest rates projected to lower and pent-up buyer demand increasing on the daily, 2024 will offer ideal market conditions.
As for housing supply, we have the lowest inventory numbers since pre-covid—perhaps even 1993 according to NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. With increasing demand for homes and such little supply, sellers have the most to gain in the approaching real estate market.
As for buyers, a large wave of first-time home buyers are projected to hit the market. 45.5 million people are about to enter the “household formation” stage of life ( the Millennial category you see below).
More often than not, the main reason people seek new homes is due to a significant life change. With many millennials entering the stage of starting families and moving away from rental properties, there will be a great demand for starter homes and suburban communities.
Overall, we don’t see any crazy shifts or real estate plot twists. The 2024 market is projected to take its time easing those interest rates and promote a gradual uptick in sales and inventory. Our team continues to be optimistic about Atlanta’s upcoming market as we make moves in the right direction.
Whether you’re looking to downsize or purchase your first family home, you can always rely on The LaMon Team to keep you up to date on local and national real estate trends. Call or text us today to get started on your 2024 real estate journey.
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